Over the past several decades, as extreme weather events have become more frequent and more severe, science has developed a new type of research and analysis called climate change attribution.   It is the study of whether, or to what degree, human influence may have contributed to extreme climate or weather events.  The goal of such work is to help determine, not if climate change caused an event, but if climate change made some extreme events more severe and more likely to occur, and if so, by how much.

 

 

 

 

In the recent past there was a scientific consensus that, while attribution of global climate trends was possible, attribution of individual events was not possible.  This changed with the development of more sophisticated computer equipment and software, as well as the wider availability of historical and observational data about weather conditions across the globe.  Basically it has been bigger and more powerful computer equipment handling a growing data base about weather events.

With the ability to identify who and what impacted extreme weather events this enhanced methodology and data can be used to defend climate regulations that are challenged as being too stringent.  They also can help establish standing to sue by showing that certain parties have been harmed by climate change impacts. It can also help hold emitters liable and sue governments for not sufficiently regulating greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Some further ideas to explore on climate attribution:

How quickly is it possible to attribute impacts from climate change on a particular severe weather event?

Review a recent extreme weather event, such as one of the California fires starting in early January 2025, and determine to what extent the fire scan be explained by aspects of climate change.

Determine what impacts or conditions other than climate change contributed to the extreme California fires.

 

Sources:

Worldwide Attribution with Dr. Friederike Otto, Grantham Institute, You Tube bit.ly/4aJj6ne

“Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area” World Weather Attribution (28 Jan 2025)bit.ly/4gnACP6

Renee Cho, “Attribution Science: Linking Climate Change to Extreme Weather,” State of the Planet: News from the Columbia Climate School bit.ly/40q8mFq

“Interpreting Weather and Climate Conditions: What is Attribution?” NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratories   https://bit.ly/4awdDzZ

Is That Climate Change? The Science of Extreme Event Attribution Congressional Research Services (June 2023).

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